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How do changes in short-term interest rates affect the overall economy? In the, short run an
expansionary monetary policy. That reduces interest rates increases, interest-sensitive spending all
else equal. Interest-sensitive spending includes. Physical investment (i.e, plant and equipment), by
firms residential investment (housing construction), and consumer-durable. Spending (e.g,
.Automobiles and appliances) by households. As discussed in the, next section it also encourages
exchange rate depreciation. That causes exports to rise and imports to fall all else, equal. To reduce
spending in the economy the Fed, raises interest. Rates and the, process works in reverse. An
examination of U.S. Economic history will show that money - and credit-induced. Demand
.Expansions can have a positive effect on U.S. GDP growth and total employment. The extent to
which greater interest-sensitive. Spending results in an increase in overall spending in the
economy in the short run will depend in part on how close the. Economy is to full employment.
When the economy is near full employment the increase, in spending is likely to be dissipated
.Through higher inflation more quickly. When the economy is far below full employment
inflationary, pressures are more likely. To be muted. This, same history however also suggests, that
over the, longer run a more rapid rate of growth of money and. Credit is largely dissipated in a
more rapid rate of inflation with little if any, lasting effect, on real GDP and, employment. (Since
the, crisisThe historical relationship between money growth and inflation has not held, so far as
will be discussed below.)
Economists. Have two explanations for this paradoxical behavior. First they note, that in the, short
run many economies, have an elaborate. System of contracts (both implicit and explicit) that
.Makes it difficult in a short period for significant adjustments to take place in wages and prices in
response to a more. Rapid growth of money and credit. Second they note, that expectations for one
reason or another are slow to adjust to the. Longer-run consequences of major changes in monetary
policy. This slow adjustment also adds rigidities to wages and, prices. Because of, these rigidities
.Changes in the growth of money and credit that change aggregate demand can have a large initial
effect on output and employment. Albeit with a policy lag of six to eight quarters before the
broader economy fully responds to monetary policy, measures. Over the, longer run as contracts
are renegotiated and, expectations adjust wages and prices rise in response to the change. In
.Demand and much of the change in output and employment is undone. Thus monetary policy, can
matter in the short run but. Be fairly neutral for GDP growth and employment in the longer run.
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